- The Australian dollar is gaining momentum as investors interact with concerns about the potential slowdown in the American economy.
- AUD finds support from the growth of the strong GDP of GDP and strong commercial data from Australia.
- Marie Dali, President of San Francisco, noted that the high uncertainty between companies may inhibit demand in the American economy.
The Australian dollar (AUD) was recovered on Monday, and he regained losses from the previous two sessions against the US dollar (USD). The upper movement of the Aud/USD husband was primarily driven by concerns about a possible slowdown in the American economy.
The Australian dollar also received support from GDP growth and the strongest trade than Australia last week. On the Monetary Policy Front, the latest report of the Reserve Bank meetings in Australia (RBA) indicated caution in terms of additional interest rate discounts, explaining that the February rate reduction does not indicate a commitment to constantly mitigate.
However, Aud may have faced descending pressure after the data of the CPI disappointing (CPI) data for February, given the role of China as the largest commercial partner in Australia, released on Saturday.
Moreover, China announced on Saturday that it will impose a 100 % tariff on Canadian oil, seeds, oil cakes and peas, along with a 25 % tax on water and pork products from Canada. The move comes as it criticizes the definitions that Canada made in October, escalating commercial tensions. This represents a new front in a broader trade conflict that is largely driven by the tariff policies worn by US President Donald Trump. The customs duties were set to become valid on March 20.
The Australian dollar is estimated with the decline in the US dollar, amid concerns about the American economy
- The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the US dollar for six major currencies, loses ground for the fifth consecutive day, and is circulating about 103.80 at the time of writing this report. However, the negative side of Greenback can be limited with the high American cabinet revenue.
- On Friday, the American Labor Statistics Office showed that NFP lists increased by 151,000 in February, as it decreased from the expected 160,000. The growth of jobs in January was revised to 125,000 from 125,000 by 143,000.
- Mary Dali, President of San Francisco, late on Sunday, stated that increasing uncertainty can weaken demand in the American economy, but does not guarantee a change in interest rates. Daly noticed that business leaders in her region express increasing concerns about the economy and politics, which indicates research indicating that it can inhibit demand.
- On Sunday, US Trade Minister Howard Lootnick said that the 25 % definitions imposed by President Donald Trump in February will be postponed on steel and aluminum imports on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. While US steel makers urged Trump to maintain definitions, companies that depend on these materials may face increasing costs.
- President Trump said on Sunday that he expects a positive result from American discussions with Ukrainian officials in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Trump also stated that his administration looked at raising intelligence on Ukraine, evaluating various aspects of definitions on Russia, and do not worry about military exercises involved in Russia, China and Iran, according to Reuters.
- The GDP in Australia has grown 0.6 %, a quarter of a quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024, bypassing expansion by 0.3 % and winning the market by 0.5 %. On an annual basis, GDP increased to 1.3 % in the fourth quarter of 0.8 % in the previous quarter.
- The Australian trade surplus increased to 5620 million in January, exceeding 5500 million expected and improving 4924 million precedents (revised from 5,085 million). Exports increased by 1.3 % month per month from the previous month, reaching an increase of 11 months driven by non -cash gold. Meanwhile, imports decreased by 0.3 % mom, after a 5.9 % sharp increase in the previous month, according to the Australian Statistical Office.
- The Vice President of the Reserve Bank in Australia (RBA), Andrew Hauser, highlighted that the uncertainty in global trade is 50 years of height. Hauser warned that the uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff can push companies and families to delay planning and investment, and may burden economic growth.
- The consumer price index in China decreased by 0.7 % on an annual basis in February, exceeding market expectations by a decrease of 0.5 % and the opposite of the 0.5 % increase recorded in the previous month. This is the first example of consumer shrinkage since January 2024, driven by the weak seasonal demand after the Spring Festival in late January. On a monthly basis, CPI -0.2 % in February, a decrease from 0.7 % in January and more soft than -0.1 %.
- The Chinese product price index (PPI) decreased by 2.2 % on an annual basis in February, slightly exceeding the market expectations by a decrease of 2.1 %. This follows a decrease of 2.3 % in the previous two months and represents the slowest decline since August 2024.
Technical Analysis: Australian dollar tests for a period of nine days near 0.6300
The AUD/USD is trading near 0.6320 on Monday, with the technical analysis of the daily scheme that indicates that the husband remains a little higher than the SIA moving average for nine days (EMA), indicating the reinforcement of momentum in the short term. In addition, the 24 -day relative indicator (RSI) remains above 50, which enhances the upholstery.
On the upper side, the first resistance appears at the psychological level of 0.6400, followed by the highest level in three months at 0.6408, registered on February 21.
The immediate support for AUD/USD is in EMA for nine days of 0.6301. The decrease in this main level may lead to a lower decrease, which may re -test the lowest level in five weeks at 0.6187, registered on March 5.
Aud/USD: Daily Chart
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage of change in the Australian dollar (AUD) against the main currencies listed today. The Australian dollar was the strongest against the US dollar.
| US dollar | euro | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | Nzd | Chf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | -0.15 % | -04 % | -0.27 % | -08 % | -18 % | -0.03 % | -0.19 % | |
| euro | 0.15 % | 0.07 % | -0.13 % | 0.08 % | 0.06 % | 0.09 % | -16 % | |
| GBP | 0.04 % | -07 % | -0.27 % | -02 % | -01 % | -0.03 % | -16 % | |
| JPY | 0.27 % | 0.13 % | 0.27 % | 0.19 % | 0.15 % | 0.16 % | 0.15 % | |
| CAD | 0.08 % | -08 % | 0.02 % | -0.19 % | -0.15 % | 0.05 % | -0.14 % | |
| Aud | 0.18 % | -06 % | 0.00 % | -0.15 % | 0.15 % | 0.04 % | -16 % | |
| Nzd | 0.03 % | -0.09 % | 0.03 % | -16 % | -05 % | -04 % | -0.09 % | |
| Chf | 0.19 % | 0.16 % | 0.16 % | -0.15 % | 0.14 % | 0.16 % | 0.09 % |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen from the left column, while the quotation currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage offered in the box will represent AUD (Base)/USD (Quote).
RBA common questions
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) determines interest rates and runs the monetary policy of Australia. Decisions are made by the Council of Governor in 11 meetings per year and allocated emergency meetings as required. The primary mandate in RBA is to maintain the stability of prices, which means an inflation rate of 2-3 %, but also “… to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, economic prosperity and the welfare of the Australian people.” Its main performance is by raising or lowering interest rates. The relatively high interest rates will enhance the Australian dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative relief and tightening.
While inflation was always believed to be a negative agent of currencies because it reduces the value of money in general, the opposite was already the case in the modern era with the relaxation of capitalist controls across the border. Moderate higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put interest rates, which in turn has an impact on attracting more capital flows from global investors looking for a profitable place to keep their money. This increases the demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Australian dollar.
The total economy data is healthy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in safe and growing economies instead unstable and shrink. Increased capital flows increased total demand and local currency value. Classical indicators, such as gross domestic product, PMIS manufacturing, employment services, and consumer morale surveys on AUD. The strong economy may encourage the Australian Reserve Bank to set interest rates, which also supports AUD.
Quantitative mitigation is a tool used in maximum situations when low interest rates are not sufficient to restore credit flow in the economy. QE is the process that the Australian Reserve Bank (AUD) is printed for the purpose of buying assets-usually government or companies-from financial institutions, and thus providing them with the intensity of the need. QE usually leads to the weaker AUD.
The quantitative tightening (QT) is the opposite of QE. It is implemented after QE when the economic recovery is ongoing and inflation begins to rise. While the RBA Reserve Bank (RBA) purchases government bonds and companies from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, RBA in QT stops buying more assets, and stops re -investing the maturity manager on the bonds that he already holds. It will be positive (or bullish) for the Australian dollar.
