In addition to a way to make speculative bets, the prediction markets can offer an additional overview of the prevailing feelings surrounding a specific issue.
You will not have to look significantly to see that the concerns surrounding the potential stagnation in the United States have increased recently. Sudden President Trump Imposing previously announced definitions In China, Mexico and Canada on March 3, it caused a crash in the cryptocurrency market, in addition to selling a general risk assets.
The reaction of the prediction market was accordingly. On March 4, two of the most popular platforms – KALSHI and Polymarket expanded a noticeable height in users who answered positively to inquire about whether the recession will happen this year or not.
Prediction markets show increasing recession possibilities
Over the course of March 4, Al -Rahan International Platform for prediction Polymarket The chances of stagnation in 2025 witnessed an increase from 27 % to 44 % – despite the time of the press, the possibilities fell to 39 %.
A similar increase was seen on the local platform Like – The recession has increased from 33 % to 43 % throughout the day.
There is an important discrimination that must be done here. Prediction markets do not represent the wider population. To pave, the possibilities provided by these platforms are achieved taking into account the profit – instead of making an actual look at the possibility of a specific result.
In addition, the deployment of capital can be widely inclined – as shown with the sudden decrease and the increase in the possibilities that these platforms witnessed when it comes to the presidential elections of the United States, until it turns out that millions of dollars have been launched by a few accounts.
With all this mind, these modern fluctuations are definitely organic, and showing increasing feelings that the Trump administration policies can lead to a decrease in the economy or a remarkable slowdown, and is determined by the end of the year.
Distinctive image via Shutterstock
