- The Australian series extends about 0.54 % losing, sliding near 0.6200 and approaching its lowest levels in several weeks.
- The six -day decrease sees that the husband breaks less than a simple moving average for 20 days, which enhances the seller’s power in the short term.
- Traders evaluate the escalation of fresh tariffs, as President Trump threatens an additional 10 % on Chinese imports.
- PCE data from the United States of January made expectations.
Aud/USD pair publishes his lowest level in three weeks near 0.6200 in the trading session on Friday after extending his losing plan for the sixth consecutive day. The Australian has already suffered a decrease throughout the week, but it faced an additional blow after the US President Donald Trump suggested an additional 10 % in China on Thursday. The inflation data from the United States also occupied the position of the lead with personal consumption expenses (PCE) from January expectations to meet the expectations, as well as Trump’s meeting with the Ukrainian president.
Digest Market Mark: Australian risk of risk amid commercial tension and weak local indicators
- The new President Trump threatens 10 % on Chinese goods complexes in existing duties, providing fears of more revenge. The customs tariffs of Mexico and Canadian goods are scheduled to take place as soon as possible next week.
- Australian private capital spending data is unexpectedly reduced by 0.2 % quarter of a quarter of the fourth quarter of 2024, and lost expectations of 0.8 %, highlighting the weakest investment activity and undermining confidence in the Australian economy.
- The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) is repeated by Governor Andrew Hauser, to emphasize optimism to improve inflation, but it increases caution in the constantly narrow labor market conditions and unconfirmed prices.
- Throughout the Pacific Ocean, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index in the United States, which is the main inflation scale of Federal Reserve (Fed) by 0.3 % in January (month of the month), where expectations are expected, as federal policy makers weigh the effects of ongoing trade conflicts.
- Ukrainian President Folodimir Zelensky rejected the “rare land deal” of President Trump, which led to an angry response from Trump and Vice President JD Vance, according to the White House sources.
- It was considered the amazing agreement aimed at swaping of defense guarantees for metal arrival vague and insufficient to deter Russia’s invasion. Zelenskyy was martyred with a more convenient proposal than the European Union, which led to the relief of feelings around the White House.
Aud/USD technical expectations: The sellers pushing less than 20 days from SMA, where RSI is heading towards the negative area
The AUD/USD pair decreased by almost 0.54 % for trading near 0.6200 on Friday, which extended a six -day losing chain and lost support from the simple moving average for 20 days. The RSI is hovering at the bottom of the scale, indicating the decline in the upscale momentum, while the graph of the medium rapprochement (MACD) shows the reduction of green tapes, which reflects the low pressure of the upper direction. Immediate support can appear around the area of 0.6150, while the bounce is likely to face resistance near SMA for 20 days if the spirits of the risk improve or decrease the tariff fears.
Questions and answers in Australian dollars
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a resource -rich country, the other main engine is the largest export price, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, the largest commercial partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, the rate of growth and commercial balance. Market morale-whether investors are eating more risky assets (risk) or searching for safe materials (risk)-is also a worker, with positive risks for AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD) by determining the level of interest rates that Australian banks can persuade each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3 % by setting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates are supported compared to other main central banks, and relatively low vice versa. RBA can also use and tighten quantitative dilution to influence credit conditions, with previous AUD negative and positive to AUD.
China is the largest commercial partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy is a major impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy does a good job, it buys more raw materials, commodities and services from Australia, raising the demand for AUD, and raising its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy does not grow at the speed available. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, they often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its wives.
Iron Ore is the largest export in Australia, as it represents 118 billion dollars annually according to data from 2021, with China as its main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be an engine for the Australian dollar. In general, if the price of iron ore rises, the AUD also rises, as the total demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of iron ore decreases. Iron ore prices also tend to increase the possibility of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country gains from its exports in exchange for what it pays to its imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces very required after exports, its currency will obtain a value of the excess demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy its exports in exchange for what it spends to buy imports. Therefore, the positive net trade balance enhances AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
