- As Los Angeles looks to rebuild, it remains vulnerable to future wildfires.
- Solutions include fire-resistant building materials and designs, high-density housing, and population relocation.
- But rebuilding communities must confront housing shortages and political pressures.
Los Angeles wildfires have displaced thousands of residents, and city leaders will have to decide how to rebuild in places where fires have become more frequent and intense.
Experts in fire mitigation and climate science say Los Angeles should seize this opportunity to design more resilient communities, given the growing risks of urban sprawl on mountainsides and homes nestled in steep, fire-prone canyons.
They suggest moving people from areas more susceptible to burns, using more fire-resistant materials, creating larger buffer zones around homes and neighborhoods free of flammable plants and materials, and building more densely in safer areas.
But as the rebuilding effort begins to take shape, orders from city and state officials suggest they may not be heeding that advice. Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass Issued an executive order On January 13, paving the way “to rebuild homes as they were.”
The order states that for a home to be eligible for an expedited permit process, the home must be rebuilt in the same location it was on before it burned and cannot be converted from single-family to multi-family. A home also cannot expand its footprint by more than 10%. Directions It could leave those rebuilt homes vulnerable to the next fire.
Here are details of some approaches that experts said could help rebuild Los Angeles safer.
Move people to safer places
For decades, Americans have been moving into communities living next to and within forests and hills. A The 2022 study is published in the journal Nature It was found that 45% of ca Houses It is located in these regions, more than any other country.
Motivating people to get out of the world, said Michael Wara, director of the Climate and Energy Policy Program at the Stanford Woods Environment Institute Those dangerous areas Relocation to safer areas – or managed withdrawal – is one of the most aggressive policies to mitigate the risks of wildfires and other disasters. He added that the idea is “largely theoretical” in places like Pacific Palisades and Aldatena, in part because of their vibrant economies.
To date, managed retreat programs have mostly focused on residents in a few flood-prone areas, including On Staten Island After Hurricane Sandy. in Alaska And on Gulf CoastCommunities that had disappeared due to thawing permafrost, erosion and sea level rise, respectively, were relocated.
A program in California last year provided up to $350,000 in forgivable loans to people displaced by fires in 2018 and 2020 to move out of high-risk areas. The funds were quickly exhausted.
Managed withdrawal is often “politically toxic,” said Stephen Smith, executive director of the North American Construction Center. Asking long-time residents and homeowners to leave their properties and communities — or even just remodel them — presents a significant challenge And expensive. some As the researchers warned Acquisitions in wildfire-prone areas could make the problem worse if abandoned plots become blaze piles.
An alternative strategy is to build more housing in safer parts of the city. most From the greater Los Angeles area It is dominated by detached houses with a very low population density. Restricted zoning prohibiting multifamily buildings has helped encourage residential sprawl.
But in recent years, California has passed a slew of laws designed to make it easier to build denser housing. A New state law Legalizing duplexes and lot subdivisions in single-family neighborhoods across California could help increase density in single-family neighborhoods in Los Angeles away from wilderness areas more prone to fires.
Make homes and neighborhoods more fire resistant
He said Los Angeles officials should consider community-level plans to harden homes and manage plants in the yards and surrounding hills. Erica Fisheran associate professor in Oregon State University’s College of Engineering who studies fire resistance.
That’s because fires can easily move from one home to another, whether from embers carried by high-speed winds or radiant heat igniting materials — the two factors that caused the Palisades and Eaton fires to spread so quickly.
“A lot of this is due to not rebuilding quickly, taking the time to develop a plan at the community level, and then enforcing and enacting that plan,” she said. “But it costs money and it’s daunting.”
In 2008, California passed some of the nation’s strictest building codes for homes in moderate to high wildfire risk areas. They impose fire-resistant materials for roofs, siding, and windows. Vent vents should have barriers to prevent embers from entering the home. Defensible Space rules require homeowners to remove flammable materials such as trees and shrubs starting within 30 feet of the edge of buildings. The state fire agency, CalFire, also has the authority to fine homeowners who don’t follow the rules.
However, a large portion of those in Los Angeles County are older homes and were not built according to those strict rules, adding to the devastation.
Zach Seidel, a Bass spokesman, said in an email that the mayor wants to rebuild Palisades to be more resilient but did not say what measures she was considering. Seidel noted that current building codes are safer than they were decades ago, and pointed to Bass’ strategy to address Los Angeles’ affordable housing crisis, which the city’s mayor said Stimulating more than 400,000 new homes Units all over the city.
A CalFire spokesperson told Business Insider that since 2020, the agency has funded nearly $20 million in wildfire prevention grants for neighborhoods and homeowners and fuel abatement on more than 1,300 acres in Los Angeles County.
A lot of the risks stem from, Smith said Combustible materials Most American single-family homes are built with wood frames. “Urban fire is fueled by actual structures, and we build our structures using fuels in America,” Smith said.
He added that this makes the United States an anomalous country. Many countries have evolved to rely primarily on concrete, which is less likely to catch fire. The abundance of wooden construction in the United States is a result of tradition and the low cost of lumber.
But the need to rebuild quickly may mean taking the path of least resistance
If rebuilding efforts after other recent fires in California are any indication, homes in Pacific Palisades, Altadena, and elsewhere in Los Angeles will serve as an indication. Reconstruct them in more fire-resistant ways, But communities won’t be designed very differently.
Los Angeles’ booming economy Acute housing shortage Intensifying the need for rapid recovery. Rebuilding what once existed is often the path of least resistance after disasters, as it is easier to obtain necessary permits and homeowners may be cost-constrained by insufficient insurance payments and high construction costs.
“This is not the time to do urban planning,” said Steve Soboroff, a real estate developer and former police commissioner charged with managing the city’s rebuilding effort. “This will delay it for 15 years. We need people to return to their homes.” He said in a press conference.
Wara said Los Angeles officials’ plans are preparing people for another disaster. He noted that Pacific Palisades and Altadena — which saw some of the worst damage — were built decades ago without taking wildfires into account. Winding roads wind toward the coast and into strong Santa Ana winds that blow flames from east to west into the densely populated cities.
Wara added that climate change only increases the likelihood of catastrophic wildfires.
In 2023, Los Angeles saw record rainfall and abundant vegetation. Then last year, during a scorching hot summer, they dried up quickly, paving the way for the current wildfires. A A recent study conducted by the University of California I found that rising global temperatures are making this type of “hit” between rain and drought more common.
After a disaster like the fires in Los Angeles, there is enormous pressure on political leaders to rebuild affected communities as quickly as possible. And this crisis — and the rising costs that come with high demand for construction resources — may not leave time to rethink how rebuilding happens to better protect communities in the future.
“You would think that this would be an opportunity to strengthen the property, and maybe not build on some of the lots that were right on the wildland front. But what we see time and time again is that the political realities are going in exactly the opposite direction,” Penn said. Metcalfe, a housing policy researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, told Business Insider:
Ultimately, affected communities will likely be rebuilt to look as they did before the fires. “We’re left with the same strategy we have, but a little more aggressive,” Smith said.
