While the Russian army is losing its grip in Syria, the United States considers the withdrawal of its forces

• The United States has 2000 soldiers in Syria that supports the Kurdish forces containing ISIS fighters.
• The Trump official weighs the withdrawal of these forces, and the Russian army loses its arrival.
• “Russia is now suspended with its fingertips,” Bi told BI.

Syria was one of the most complex battles in the world since the outbreak of its civil war in 2011, but it carries power and where it is now rapidly.

The biggest change came from the dramatic overthrow of the Bashar al -Assad regime in December. It was expelled by the Islamic Group, Haya Tarir al -Sham, who are not friends of Russia or Iran.

HTS holds lands from Aleppo in the northwest to Damascus, the headquarters of the Assad regime. But Syria is still broken due to the competing armies. Turkish forces and the militants that support pockets near their northern borders. The Syrian -American Democratic Forces operate the large triangle in northeastern Syria, an area that includes oil fields and prison camps that maintain ISIS fighters. Russia reduces its military imprint, as Israel seizes new positions near the Golan Heights. But the latest question mark is the United States.

In the United States, there are 2000 soldiers in Syria that support SDF led by the Kurds to contain ISIS. It also controls the tannif base with a strategic location in southern Syria. But the length of these publishing operations is unclear. Ministry of Defense According to the formulation of emergency plans To withdraw all forces if President Donald Trump is an order.

“At the present time, the HTS government is seeking to create conditions for the American withdrawal from the country that undermines the SDF alliance, which represents an obstacle to the ability of the emerging regime to control all countries,” Nicholas Hiras, chief director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, Tell Business Insider.

American forces in Syria protect oil fields and SDF in strikes to defeat ISIS’s remains. These forces are a potential crane that risks Trump with a loss if he withdrawn before talks with the new government under temporary President Ahmed Al -Shara.

“It seems likely that the Trump administration will keep the forces in Syria in the short term and talk about a step -by -step policy represented in reducing sanctions based on President SAR’s readiness to develop a constitution and move towards a representative government that does not threaten it. Joshua Landes, director of the Center for Studies in the Middle East and the Ferzaniye Family Center for Studies Iranian and Persian Gulf at Oklahoma University, for BI.

The easiest compromise segment can be the American base in tannaf in the southern desert in Syria. Al Qaeda is located near the Jordanian border and the important Baghdad road. The United States imposed 34 miles The area of ​​disposal of it About Tanf, which was not allowed to reach the Iranian -backed forces and the Assad regime.

“The American presence in the tannaf was largely doubtful before the lion fell and does not serve any clear purpose now, except for perhaps as a Financial Crane point against the new Damascus government,” Aaron Lund, the Middle East analyst with the Swedish defense of the research agency and a colleague with Centure International, was told Bi. “Therefore, the tannaf can be a place that they will withdraw from the beginning, perhaps after getting something small in exchange for the SR government.”

The SDF -controlled areas offer “thorny issue” with much higher shares. Kurdish guards with thousands of ISIS fighters, but they will severely pressure to maintain a major attack by a competitor. While HTS has not attacked SDF, Turkish subsidized militias have done this over and over since late 2024.

“There are some real political risks related to the revival of ISIS and the fate of Kurdish groups in this field,” said Lund. “Even Trump may be convinced that these things deserve to negotiate if they are only to reduce the repercussions before withdrawing.”

Israel has sought its presence along the Golan Heights with the collapse of the Assad regime, and seized the Hermon Mountain. Satellite images show it as well Construction there.

“Israel does not trust the HTS government, and the Israeli position indicates that Jerusalem can play a strong role in Syrian affairs for years to come.”

The external power that stands more than others is Türkiye. Before his last visit to Türkiye, Reports indicate Shara Türkiye will discuss that it will create bases in the central desert region in Syria.

“Türkiye has already enjoys a military presence working forward in northwestern Syria, and it is unlikely to withdraw its forces from the country in the near future,” Hiras said. “The government -led government wants to take advantage of Türkiye to obtain a sponsoring country to support the development of its security forces.”

On the contrary, Russia will lose more. Syria He canceled the Assad era contract With Russia’s presence to manage the Tartus Naval base, the Minister of Defense in Syria also said it might allow Russia to keep this port and the Hmeimim Airbase base “if we get benefits for Syria.”

“Russia is now hanging with the tips of its fingers, but we will see how this appeared,” said Lund. “Within five years, they can still get Tartus, and perhaps also Hmeimim.”

Moscow has managed to reach Tartus since 1971. Today, these rules are necessary to support Russian military and mercenaries throughout the Middle East and Africa.

Lund said: “It is clear that the new Syrian government is not a friend of the Russians. It must be aware of the opinions of its political base, which consists of previous poor factions that Putin hates as much as they hate Assad.” He pointed out that Russia still has an “important crane” on Syria. The rebuilding of the Syrian army without Russian weapons can prove a challenge, even if Syria aims to make Turkey replace Russia Traditional role as a supplier of major weapons.

“There is a lot of Soviet and ancient Russian and Russian equipment and training, you can not only get rid of all of this,” said Lund.

The new rulers in Syria have no little fear of Russia since Russia’s days have disappeared unnecessarily the stronghold of HTS IDLIB to support Assad.

“The Russian bases are under its mercy, and it seems somewhat harmless to the new government,” Lund said.

“Let them survive can provide a point of leverage.”

Paul Edon is a independent journalist and writer who writes about the developments of the Middle East, military affairs, politics and history. His articles appeared in a variety of posts that focus on the region.