Este artículo también está disponible en estñol.
In a new investor note published on January 29, 2025, Matt Hogan, the chief investment official of BitWise, asked whether the historic market cycle for four years of Bitcoin finally ended. His zone in seismic transformations in the United States’ policy towards encryption, which was highlighted by a modern executive order from President Trump aimed at consolidating the leadership of the nation in digital assets.
Can 2026 Pak the Bitcoin bear direction?
Hojan Note It begins with an explanation of the so -called “four -year cycle”, as Bitcoin usually witnessed three years of great gains, followed by withdrawal. He explains that this session reflects the patterns of a wider boom in the traditional markets: “The four -year -long cycle in encoding is driven by the same forces that drive wider courses of growth and stagnation in the public economy,” he wrote.
Related reading
These expansions, which are fed by technological breakthroughs or the increased interest of the investor, often lead to excessive amount, which sometimes leads to fraud or stress at the level of industry. Ultimately, something “breaks” and leads to the market correction – such as the collapse of the 2014 Gox or the 2018 repression of ICOS.
Hougan describes the current encryption height as the “prevailing cycle”, which arises from “Deleveraging Massive” for the year 2022 caused by failure such as FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and others. According to him, the last stage of the bull stage was launched in March 2023, when Grayscale won a convincing way with the opening argument “in the legal challenge against the Supreme Council for Education on Bitcoin ETF.
“Bitcoin was trading at $ 22,218 when Grayscale launched its argument. It is traded at $ 102,674 today. The dominant era arrived.” Once Bitcoin ETF was approved and released in January 2024, the investor flows increased, which increased Bitcoin’s acceptance between both retail and institutions.
The most surprising element in Hougan’s analysis is his examination of the executive matter last week by President Trump. It is not only the development of the ecosystem of the American digital assets “national priority”, but rather it also sets a clearer regulatory framework.
Related reading
“Last week, President Trump issued an executive order that was very optimistic about the space that makes me wonder,” he wrote, noting that the document defines plans for a possible “national encryption stock” and encourages banks and financial institutions to accelerate the adoption of digital assets.
Besides a more welcoming position on the Securities and Stock Exchange, Hogan believes that these measures can launch trillions in new investments over the coming years, far exceeding hundreds of billions that have already been expected to generate the market that ETF moved.
Hojan’s analysis acknowledges that Bitcoin has historically followed the withdrawal pattern in the end after the rising of the bull. But with the readiness of the Wall Street giant and the main banks to integrate the encryption at every level, there is an increasing possibility that the market may not face traditional diving in 2026: “If it is not until next year we feel these effects, will we really get a new” Crypto Winter “in a year 2026? “If Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock, is calling for Bitcoin worth $ 700,000, will we really see 70 % withdrawal?”
While he admits that the leverage is still constructing in the system-which increases the high baccalaureate lending programs, derivatives, and the products traded on the stock exchange-also highlights a variety of increased investors from investors. This diversity, as it argues, can inhibit severe clouds. “I think we have not fully overcome a four -year cycle. The leverage will be based with the construction of the bull market. The excess will appear. Poor actors will appear. At some point, there may be a sharp withdrawal when the market overcomes its cash.”
However, Hougan expects any correction in the market in the future “shorter and shallow” than previous sessions. With the infrastructure in the industry now more powerful, the main participants who treat Crypto may be a legal assets category, a dramatic bear market similar to those in 2014 or 2018. He concluded by saying: “Now, it is a full vapor in the future.” “The encryption train leaves the station.”
At the time of the press, BTC was traded at $ 105,275.
Distinctive image created with Dall.e, Chart from TradingView.com
