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Bob Lucas, veteran encryption analyst, reduced his exposure from Bitcoin, warning of followers that although the bull cycle is still intact, the possibility of bitcoin has already reached its peak in this course for four years. In the update Published On April 8, Lucas detailed the logical basis behind the sale of a third of his model wallet at $ 79,500, citing technical deterioration and the background of the deteriorating macroeconomic economy.
“I still think we have the ability to pay later in the year or even early next year to the highest level in a four -year cycle,” Lucas said. However, he emphasized that the recent procedures for structural prices and charts in the plans demanded a more cautious approach. “I do not invite this to be the summit in the course, but I say that the possibility of being a summit has increased … from this low risk to something that may look like a third – as you know, a 33 % chance.”
Bitcoin bull in doubt
The transformation of the portfolio, which brings Bitcoin allocating to the model to 27 BTC with the rest, is not an invitation to impending imminent collapse but it surrounds the high negative risks. Lucas stressed that his decision was not interactive or outright, but rather is in line with a long -term strategy that is conducted in the periodic structure of the Bitcoin price date. He referred to his video in February, where he warned that if the next weekly course fails to obtain support and take its lowest levels, this will indicate a deeper problem. “In the third year of the bull market, you don’t want to see its lowest levels like those that we had in February … then it is removed. It doesn’t happen much.”
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Lucas referred to a series of violations of the direction line and the separation of monetary support on the weekly and monthly plans. While the recognition that the technical breaks are not, in isolation, a reliable prediction of the design of the courses, he said that they add weight to the thesis that the market may move to the retreating stage from a four -year cycle. He said: “We are now … after 29 months of the cycle,” so it’s deeply deep now where I just need to take this more seriously. “
Although the analyst is still a long-term export-which launches a strong performance, ETF flows, and institutional adoption-warned that the opposite winds of the macroeconomic economy can accelerate the negative side in the short term. “There is a serious Macro case that occurs here with definitions, trade and economics,” Lucas pointed out. “We haven’t seen an impact or disruption like this on global trade for decades … it can become … a complete global recession.”
In such a scenario, the idea of bitcoin can completely separate the origins of the risk, from Lucas’s point of view, unrealistic. “Due to the fact that the investment funds circulated in the new, Silor and others – the institutional participation or Trafi in Bitcoin – believes that complete exacerbation … may be unrealistic.”
An analyst explained a possible scenario in the bear in which Bitcoin decreases towards the level of $ 52,000 – an alternative by approximately 50 % of its highest levels in January. While this confirms that this is not expecting but emergency, Lucas stated that such a step can provide an opportunity to restore strong entry. “If there are some powers next month to three months on their way to saying the level of 54,000 dollars, I will think at that stage that the decline of 50 % is enough … where I want to re -spread some risks.”
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He added that any large gathering followed by the lowest decrease, in his opinion, confirms the summit of a four -year course. “Great move up and then move down down … a large type of final nail in the coffin.”
However, Lucas did not rule out higher levels later this year. The possibility of a “ultra-translated right” is presented, as it exceeds the standard Bitcoin, the standard of the month -35-perhaps in the month 41 or 42-follows a sharp but brief correction and then continues in the next four cycle. This scenario will include a double pump brown or even three times complex, echoing the 2013 and 2021 cycle patterns.
Currently, the model’s portfolio remains two -thirds of investment in bitcoin, and Lucas repeated that he prefers an upward result even at the expense of low exposure. “The best ride two thirds of the center, which reaches 150 thousand dollars, or 200 thousand dollars, or even more, which would like to say,” Well, Bitcoin returns to 48 thousand dollars or less. “
Ultimately, Lucas formulated this step not as a declining surrender but as a wise management of risk. “I am basically intended for risks and capital … and with your deeper and deeper progress in the course, the higher, the risks/bonus change, of course.”
At the time of the press, BTC was traded at $ 77,743.
Distinctive image created with Dall.e, Chart from TradingView.com
